Thursday, February 15, 2007

How To Assess The Market Opportunity In Online Influence On Offline Spending

OK. I am still pondering that new Jupiter research report that talks about the influnce of online research on in store sales. This report stated that there was $100 billion in eCommerce sales in 2006. If you apply the generic rule that the typical comparison shopping engine (CSE) gets a lead/commission fee of about 2% (of each dollar spend in revenue) for all the high-value traffic that they send to online retailers, this equates out to about $2 billion in revenue. So all the CSEs and affiliates out there collectively share in this $2 billion pie. This is a crowded and highly competitive market. A market that is predicted by the same report to become stagnant and flat in the not so distant future.

So rather than chasing the eCommerce marketplace, why not target the off-line sales that are directly influenced by online research? Seems pretty obvious to me. Less players. Bigger market. A market that is growing (vs becoming flat like eComm). If you applied the same math as above to the in-store spending that is influenced by online research, this market is about $200 billion by year 2011 (the overall pie is about $1 trillion in 2011).

So why doesn't the same model of lead generation and traffic hold true for web - to - store purchases? Tracking, tracking and tracking. There is just not the level of reporting and tracking of these leads.

My mission is to prove that the same referral model that happens online should and does absolulty hold true for web to store sales.

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